Prediction of Karen Khachanov vs Jan-Lennard Struff at Almaty Open - Almaty 10-16-25

• How does the recent form of players impact their second serve performance? Karen Khachanov has excelled, winning 47.11% of points on his second serve, surpassing Jan-Lennard Struff, who has won 45.40%.
• Which player displays stronger return game stats? Karen Khachanov again shows the edge, winning 46.97% of his opponent's second serve points compared to 44.99% for Jan-Lennard Struff.
• Performance on first serve returns highlights a trend: Khachanov holds a slight advantage with 24.42% over Struff's 22.27%.
• Under pressure, Khachanov has saved 57.59% of breakpoints, marginally outperforming Struff at 55.93%.
• In terms of overall match performance, Khachanov has won 64.62% of matches over the last year compared to 43.14% for Struff. Could this indicate a significant advantage?
• Analyzing surface preferences, Khachanov prefers Grass with a win rate of 63%, whereas Struff excels on Clay with the same percentage.
• Both have primarily played on the Main tour in the last year, but Khachanov wins 62.96% of these matches, significantly higher than Struff's 43.48%.
• Direct H2H results favor Khachanov, victorious in 4 out of 6 encounters.
• In extreme situations, including tiebreaks, Khachanov's winning record (4 out of 5) suggests resilience.
• Facing highly ranked opponents, Khachanov contends with tougher competitors, with an average opponent rank of 72.12 versus Struff's 88.41.
• How do players fare in deciding sets? Khachanov shows more consistency, winning 53% of deciding sets compared to Struff's 41%.

Editorial Prediction (October 15, 2025, UTC):

In this upcoming tennis match, the statistical analysis points towards Karen Khachanov having a slight advantage over Jan-Lennard Struff. His superior performance on second serve points, return games, and ability to handle pressure demonstrates his strength in critical situations.

Khachanov's higher win percentages over the last year, both overall and on the Main tour, along with his favorable head-to-head record, highlight his consistent performance at a higher level of competition.

Considering his ability to thrive in both tiebreaks and deciding sets, Khachanov appears more equipped to secure a victory in crucial moments.

While Struff's performance on Clay is notable, the overall assessment indicates Karen Khachanov is the likely winner of this match.